Experts Fear We Are Now Short 1 Billion Barrels of Oil

Energy experts are warning that the global oil market has entered a far more fragile phase as renewed tensions threaten another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data compiled by major international energy institutions and industry leaders, the conflict between the United States and Iran has already removed approximately 1 billion barrels of oil from the global system since the war began.

The estimate comes from cumulative production, shipping and refining losses recorded over several months of conflict.

Rather than representing oil destroyed, the figure reflects crude that should have been produced, transported or processed but never reached global markets because of military attacks, shipping interruptions and repeated closures affecting one of the world’s busiest energy corridors.

The International Energy Agency has confirmed that cumulative supply disruptions have crossed the 1-billion-barrel threshold.

Similar assessments have been offered by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser and Shell CEO Wael Sawan, both of whom warned that restoring normal supply conditions could take considerable time even if commercial traffic fully resumes.

Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz routinely handled between 14 million and 20 million barrels of crude oil each day.

During the most severe disruptions, tanker traffic reportedly collapsed from roughly 100 crude carriers daily to fewer than one, temporarily removing an estimated 10 to 14 million barrels per day from the international market and allowing the cumulative deficit to grow rapidly.

The latest escalation followed the breakdown of a fragile maritime ceasefire after renewed missile exchanges and U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow.

Iran responded by moving to shut the strait to non-Iranian shipping, immediately reigniting fears of another prolonged interruption to one of the world’s most strategically important maritime trade routes.

The renewed uncertainty quickly spread through energy markets. Brent crude rose about 4% to roughly $87.20 per barrel following the latest developments.

Although still below the war’s earlier peak of between $118 and $126 per barrel, traders warned that tightening physical supplies could continue pushing prices upward if the disruption persists.

Analysts say the greatest concern is that global emergency reserves are no longer as robust as they were earlier in the conflict.

The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of approximately 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles, with roughly 75% of that volume already used. Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to about 415 million barrels, reducing the West’s ability to respond to another prolonged supply shock.

The crisis extends well beyond crude production. Global refining activity has reportedly declined by more than 5 million barrels per day, restricting supplies of gasoline, diesel and other refined fuels.

Major importing nations have also been affected, with crude shipments into China and Japan falling dramatically as disruptions continue affecting maritime trade throughout the region.

Donald Trump initially announced on Truth Social that the United States would become «THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT» while proposing a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo passing safely through the waterway.

Hours later, however, he abandoned the proposed fee, saying Gulf nations would instead compensate the United States through expanded trade agreements and major investment commitments while maintaining a full blockade targeting only Iranian shipping.

Despite Trump’s assurances that maritime traffic remains secure, many energy analysts remain unconvinced.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has previously noted that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates possess only limited overland pipeline capacity capable of bypassing Hormuz.

At the same time, Houthi threats in the Red Sea and soaring marine insurance premiums continue discouraging commercial vessels from entering the region.

With approximately 1 billion barrels already removed from global supply since the conflict began, experts warn that another extended disruption could place unprecedented strain on inventories, fuel production and international trade.

Although governments continue searching for diplomatic and military solutions, traders increasingly believe the global energy market has far less room for error than it did only a few months ago, leaving every new development in the Strait of Hormuz under intense international scrutiny.