Trump Ally Flávio Bolsonaro Beats Lula in Brazil’s First Round, Setting Up Presidential Runoff

In Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election, right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro delivered a stronger-than-expected performance, securing 47.03% of valid votes. He finished ahead of leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who received 45.16%, putting the Bolsonaro political movement unexpectedly ahead as Brazil entered the final stage of its presidential contest.

Bolsonaro collected more than 56.1 million votes, compared with approximately 53.9 million for Lula, establishing an advantage of roughly 2.2 million votes. The result was particularly significant because Bolsonaro entered election day behind Lula in several final polls. As ballots were counted nationwide, however, the right-wing senator emerged in first place ahead of the incumbent president.

Finishing first was not enough for Bolsonaro to claim the presidency. Brazil requires a presidential candidate to secure more than half of valid votes to win in the opening round. Neither candidate reached that threshold, prompting the Superior Electoral Court to confirm a head-to-head second round between Bolsonaro and Lula on Sunday, October 25.

The runoff leaves both candidates with three weeks to reshape their campaigns for a dramatically different race. With the rest of the presidential field eliminated, Bolsonaro and Lula must now compete for voters who backed other candidates on October 4. Whoever receives the greater number of valid votes in the October 25 runoff will become Brazil’s next president.

Bolsonaro presented his first-place finish as evidence that Brazilian voters are demanding a political change. «I couldn’t be more pleased to see that Brazil wants change,» he told supporters after the results. He also described the outcome as «the end of the PT era,» targeting Lula’s Workers’ Party as he prepared for the decisive second-round campaign.

Lula acknowledged that the first-round outcome was substantially different from what he had anticipated. «I confess to you that I was convinced I was going to win the election in the first round,» he told supporters. The 80-year-old incumbent must now overcome Bolsonaro’s roughly 2.2-million-vote advantage while seeking what would be another presidential term.

Behind Flávio’s campaign stands the political legacy of his father, Jair Bolsonaro. The former president lost the 2022 election to Lula and was later convicted over a plot aimed at remaining in power and overturning the democratic transfer of authority. Flávio has made his father’s fate an important political issue and has pledged to seek his release.

Flávio Bolsonaro has also cultivated ties with Donald Trump, adding an international dimension to Brazil’s presidential contest. Trump previously criticized the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs on Brazilian imports, while Flávio developed his own relationship with Washington. Trump nevertheless stopped short of formally endorsing Flávio before Brazilians cast their first-round ballots on October 4.

Lula and his allies have accused Washington of applying political pressure on Brazil in ways that benefited the Bolsonaro movement, allegations rejected by the Trump administration. Those tensions have transformed relations with the United States into another campaign issue, alongside domestic concerns over crime, the economy, political institutions and Brazil’s place in an increasingly divided international landscape.

Lula is attempting to reset the contest by portraying the second round as a fresh political battle. Using a soccer analogy to rally supporters, he declared, «The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people.» Both campaigns will now concentrate heavily on voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated.

The October 25 runoff will bring Brazil’s two dominant political forces into another direct confrontation, this time with Jair Bolsonaro’s son carrying the family banner. Lula defeated the elder Bolsonaro in 2022; four years later, Flávio has finished ahead of Lula in the opening round. Brazilians will now decide whether Lula remains president or the Bolsonaro movement returns to power.