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As a new referendum looms large in Alberta politics, due to be voted on in October, a new poll has been released by the Angus Reid Institute that claims most Albertans actually want to remain in Canada. Contrary to what the separatist movement has claimed over the past few weeks, Angus Reid's poll claims that more than 60 per cent of Albertans actually want to remain a part of Canada. On June 1, the Angus Reid Institute, the premier polling company in Canada, released a detailed poll claiming that three in five Albertans wish to remain in Canada. The poll also claimed that more than half of Albertans think that Premier Danielle Smith has done a poor job of handling the issue as a whole.
Three in five Albertans want to stay in the country
The poll released by Angus Reid surveyed 800 Alberta adults, the participants were randomly selected and were drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, an online panel that results in findings having just a 3 per cent error possibility. The poll found that overall, 60 per cent of Albertans want to remain a Province of Canada instead of becoming their own country. It's important to note that support of separatism varies drastically by political affiliation, age, and wealth demographics. While 90 per cent of NDP voters want to remain in Canada, 64 per cent of Conservative voters wish to separate from Canada. Age demographics tell an interesting story as well, with support for separatism growing with the age of participants. Support for separatism also changes drastically based on the location of participants, with Albertans in the major cities showing little support for the movement.
A confusing question
An interesting question asked by the Angus Reid poll relates to the actual referendum question that will appear on the ballot in October 2026. The question about separation is a whopping 37 words, instead of being a simple leave/stay option. The full question is confusing, difficult to read, and altogether too long.
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Alberta referendum question
Angus Reid attempted an experiment with the question. Angus Reid polled participants using the massive, 37-word novel written by the Provincial government. Then they posed the question, but phrased it with a simple leave/stay option. When asked the 37-word question, 60 per cent of Albertans voted to stay a part of Canada, when given a simple ‘stay/leave' option, 67 per cent of polled Albertans voted to stay. While the difference is slim at just seven per cent, it shows that Alberta hasn't done an effective job wording a question that impacts the province's future.
Danielle Smith doing a ‘poor' job
Angus Reid also polled Albertans on how they believe Danielle Smith has been handling the issue as a whole. The poll asked, “How would you say Premier Danielle Smith has been handling this issue so far?” The controversial premier did not manage to get a majority of approval for her actions. Even though the majority of Albertans believe she has handled the issue poorly, she didn't perform too badly. Fifty-seven per cent of Albertans think she has handled the issue poorly, less than the 60 per cent who want to stay in the country. This means to a degree, Smith has achieved her goal. Danielle Smith has said publicly she wishes Alberta to remain a province, but has made an effort to make separatists feel heard and valued. Clearly, she still has the support of separatists, and has the support of some who do not support the separatist movement.
Carney criticizes movement
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been very public about his disagreement with the separatist movement. On June 1, Mark Carney made comments regarding the separation. He claimed that Smith's posing of the referendum question was ‘not helpful' to the unification efforts his government has committed to. He also called the potential separation a ‘dangerous bluff', and likened it to Brexit, the UK's separation from the European Union. The comparison to Brexit is not unfounded, as much like the age demographic information gained by Angus Reid, support for separatism is significantly higher in older Albertans. When the UK separated from the EU, British people aged 55 or older ended up making the decision for the rest of the country, voting overwhelmingly in favour of separation.
Will the separatists consign?
One of the questions on the minds of pro-Canada Albertans is whether the strong separatist movement will concede if Alberta votes to remain a province. The Angus Reid poll found that 70 per cent of participants polled believe the separatists will ‘never accept the outcome' if Alberta votes to stay in Canada. Forty-one per cent of those who said they support separatism claimed they would not accept the outcome if Alberta votes against the movement, setting up a potentially dangerous rift in one of Canada's most populated provinces.
