Trump Seeks Belarus Potash to Cut Reliance on Canada, but Lukashenko Says There’s Not Enough

Donald Trump is taking his escalating trade confrontation with Canada into another crucial sector, announcing that his administration is pursuing a major agreement to purchase potash from Belarus. The proposal could shift some American demand away from Canada toward the Russia-aligned country, challenging a deeply established agricultural supply chain between the United States and Saskatchewan.

Trump unveiled the negotiations directly on Truth Social, presenting Belarus as a potential new source for a fertilizer ingredient essential to American agriculture. «The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus,» Trump wrote, introducing a potential alternative to supplies that American farmers have overwhelmingly obtained from neighboring Canada.

The president explicitly compared the proposed Belarusian supply with what Americans currently purchase from Canada. «The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers,» Trump wrote. His statement transformed the potential agreement from an ordinary fertilizer deal into another element of the U.S.-Canada trade confrontation.

Potash contains potassium, an essential fertilizer nutrient used to improve crop yields and plant health. The United States relies overwhelmingly on imports to satisfy its needs, with Canada supplying approximately 80 percent of American potash imports in recent years. Much of that production originates in Saskatchewan before moving directly into major U.S. agricultural regions through established rail networks.

The scale of the relationship makes replacing Canadian potash particularly complicated. The United States purchased approximately C$4.2 billion worth of Canadian potash in 2025, making American farmers enormously important customers for the industry. Unlike overseas competitors, Canadian producers also benefit from geography and infrastructure that allow fertilizer to move relatively efficiently from Saskatchewan directly into the United States.

Potash had remained comparatively protected as Trump’s broader trade confrontation with Canada expanded into other industries, partly because disrupting fertilizer supplies could increase costs for American farmers. The Belarus announcement introduces new uncertainty into that relationship while Canada simultaneously searches for ways to reduce its own dependence on the American market after months of escalating economic tensions with Washington.

Trump’s proposed alternative carries substantial geopolitical complications. Belarus has been ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko since 1994 and remains closely aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian forces used Belarusian territory during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while Canada and the European Union continue imposing restrictions connected to Minsk’s repression and support for Moscow’s war.

The United States has recently moved differently from Canada and Europe. Washington lifted sanctions on major Belarusian potash producers earlier in 2026 as part of a diplomatic opening that included the release of political prisoners. A major American fertilizer agreement would deepen that commercial relationship at the same time Washington’s economic confrontation with longtime ally Canada continues to intensify.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe sharply criticized the proposed shift toward Belarus. «Buying blood potash from Belarus is supporting Russian aggression,» Moe said. «It’s wrong and it doesn’t make sense.» Moe also questioned how Belarusian fertilizer transported across far greater distances could ultimately reach American farmers more cheaply than potash produced immediately across the U.S. border in Saskatchewan.

Belarus is landlocked and has lost access to important traditional export routes through neighboring countries, complicating any major expansion toward the American market. Additional shipments could depend heavily on routes through Russia and maritime ports. Canadian producers, meanwhile, already have extensive rail connections into the United States, creating a significant logistical advantage that cannot easily be replaced by lower prices.

Trump’s «massive Deal» now faces an even more basic obstacle: Belarus says its available production is already committed. Lukashenko acknowledged, «Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes – everything has already been allocated under contracts.» The admission raises immediate questions about how extensively Belarus could actually replace Canadian supply.