Kamala Harris would win election in a landslide in rematch

CNN’s chief data correspondent Harry Enten says the numbers now look dramatically different from the 2024 result if voters were asked to choose again between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Speaking on CNN News Central, Enten pointed to new national polling and told viewers: «Look at where we are now, according to an NBC News SurveyMonkey poll: She wins it by—get this—eight points.»

He emphasized how striking that margin would be compared with the last election, adding: «A massive shift from what we saw in November of 2024 when Donald Trump won by a point.» The analysis immediately fueled debate about whether public opinion has turned sharply against Trump.

Enten stressed that the poll was not based on a skewed or Democratic-leaning sample but instead was adjusted to reflect the actual 2024 electorate. He underlined that detail on air, saying:

«And I will note that this sample was weighted to the 2024 result in which Donald Trump won by a point, but yet, Kamala Harris in this weighted sample,» before concluding, «She wins by eight amongst the sample that voted for Trump by one.» For Enten, that suggests movement among key voters who supported Trump previously but may now be reconsidering their choice amid shifting political conditions.

The polling shift comes as Trump faces some of the weakest approval numbers of his political career.

During the same discussion, Enten described Trump’s net approval rating as «-22», a figure he said is significantly worse than this point in Trump’s first term and weaker than comparable numbers for recent presidents.

Such ratings can have direct consequences in midterm elections, where voters often use congressional races to express dissatisfaction with the White House. With independents typically decisive in battleground districts, a deeply negative approval environment could complicate Republican efforts to maintain or expand their hold in Congress.

Recent special elections have added to Democratic optimism. In Texas, Democrat Christian Menefee won a U.S. House special election in a heavily Democratic Houston-area district and framed the result as a rebuke to the president, saying the district «topples corrupt presidencies.»

In another closely watched Texas race, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a state Senate seat in a district Trump had comfortably carried in 2024. These victories follow a pattern of Democratic over-performance in several off-cycle contests, a trend party strategists argue signals energy among their voters ahead of the midterms.

Even so, national surveys suggest Democrats remain cautious. Polling has shown that many Democratic voters continue to express frustration with their own party despite recent wins, highlighting internal tensions over strategy and messaging.

Party leaders are trying to channel anti-Trump sentiment into sustained turnout, particularly among suburban voters and young people who proved decisive in recent cycles. The contrast between improving Democratic performance in special elections and broader dissatisfaction within the electorate underscores the unpredictable mood heading into a high-stakes midterm year.

Trump, for his part, is already preparing aggressively for the coming electoral battles. He has touted a massive political war chest and continues to endorse candidates aligned with his agenda, seeking to shape Republican primaries and strengthen loyalty within the party.

His public appearances increasingly carry a campaign tone, focusing on rallying supporters and attacking Democratic leadership. As midterms approach, the emerging dynamic is clear: CNN’s data analysis suggests a potential landslide in a hypothetical rematch, while Trump’s falling approval ratings and Democrats’ recent victories create a volatile political landscape.