Pierre Poilievre Wants Canadian Unity Message in Alberta

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is set to deliver a high-stakes message to Albertans this week. The message will promote Canadian unity, and Poilievre hopes to slow the growth of the Alberta separatist movement. There is an interesting overlap between Albertans who support separatists and Conservative Albertans. More than 80 per cent of Albertans who support separation vote Conservative, so Poilievre, as the leader of the CCP, may have more sway than other Canadian politicians. Speaking in Calgary, Poilievre is expected to argue that the Federal government is to blame, and that, rather than running from Canada, Albertans should instead focus on voting for change.

Alberta separatists have cited taxation, energy development, and provincial autonomy as the strongest reasons for their desire to leave Canada. Poilievre will argue that all of those issues can be solved through voting, instead of a referendum. The speech comes as Alberta readies for a referendum vote in October that will ask residents whether or not the province should remain a part of Canada. If Alberta votes in favour of separation, it will begin a lengthy legal process that would result in a vote for separation.

Contents of the speech

Pierre Poilievre released excerpts of his upcoming speech, sharing them with the Canadian Press early on June 8. In the excerpts released, Poilievre focuses on the perceived failings of the Canadian government. Poilievre clarifies that Albertans do not have a problem with Canada; they have a problem with Mark Carney. Poilievre will attempt to garner more support for his Federal Conservatives by leaning on Albertans national pride. Poilievre will advertise his focus on building pipelines, funding the oil and gas sector, and reducing taxes in the province. Poilievre will also reportedly advertise more provincial autonomy for Alberta.

Alberta wants autonomy

One of the most significant sticking points for Alberta separatists is Alberta's provincial autonomy. In Canada, provinces help each other through wealth dispersal. While Alberta has historically been one of the most profitable provinces, a large chunk of its wealth is dispersed among other provinces in order to ensure those provinces can afford social services. The Albertan idea of ‘Us vs Them' is not new, and it has been the biggest argument for separation during the movement's history. Alberta does not believe it should have to ‘bail out' other provinces, but instead believes it should keep all of its profits (specifically from the energy sector) to itself. Similar arguments are made by Conservatives across Canada when it comes to social services and healthcare. Some Canadians do not believe their tax dollars should be used to help others; the separatist mentality is the same, just on a larger scale.

Voting for a referendum

The referendum became possible after Alberta's legislature passed Bill 54, the Election Statutes Amendment Act, in May. The legislation significantly lowered the threshold required for citizen-led referendum petitions, reducing the number of signatures needed from 20 per cent of eligible voters to 10 per cent. The legislation also extended the time available to collect those signatures from 90 days to 120 days. The changes were championed by Premier Danielle Smith's government as a way to strengthen direct democracy, but the changes also made it substantially easier for separatist organizations to force a province-wide vote on independence. Within days of the bill becoming law, separatist groups began organizing campaigns aimed at securing a referendum question on Alberta's future within Canada.

The separatist movement itself has still faced setbacks despite gaining political visibility. A recent Alberta court ruling temporarily halted one referendum petition after finding that Indigenous consultation requirements had not been adequately addressed. First Nations leaders have argued that Alberta cannot separate from Canada without considering treaty obligations that predate the province itself. Legal experts widely believe any actual path toward independence would face enormous constitutional obstacles, even if Albertans eventually voted in favour of pursuing it.

Poilievre parlaying separation into support

Pierre Poilievre's speech could be a turning point in Alberta politics. By appealing to the separatists while being anti-separation, Poilievre has a legitimate opportunity to unite the province. The problems arise in the how. Poilievre will have to make Mark Carney and his Liberal party the common enemy, persuading Albertans to vote Poilievre in and Carney out in order to achieve their goals. Poilievre will offer some of the conditions that separatists need, but it will be difficult for him to actually achieve those goals if he gets into office. In order to serve the separatists, Poilievre will have to enact massive sweeping changes to Federal legislation, something every Prime Minister struggles with. Without a majority government, it would be particularly difficult for Poilievre to make good on the promises he'll make in his speech.